IFPA’s claim ignores HSE statistics on benefit of 3-day wait

Image credit: Luiz Milczwski via Pexels / Jonathan Sanchez via Unsplash

A recent claim made by the Irish Family Planning Association (IFPA) says that there is “no scientific evidence” that supports Ireland’s mandatory 3-day waiting period of reflection following an initial abortion consultation. 

The claim is made to support a call for this part of the Irish abortion legislation to be removed. However, the organisation has completely ignored official HSE statistics that have found, on average 1,000 women each year have changed their mind and not returned for an abortion after this waiting period. 

The IFPA’s claim, as reported in the Journal this past weekend, is based on their 2024 annual report that says that between 2021-2024, 98% of their clients returned to access their abortion “services” after their initial consultation. Furthermore, their findings in 2024 which consisted of an analysis of 677 clients seeking abortion, 11 of them (1.6%) had decided to continue their pregnancy, whilst the rest went on to have an abortion. These findings from 2024 did not include the 31 women who ended up not requiring the abortion due to a miscarriage, ectopic or negative test, or 40 other women who the organisation had lost contact with following the initial consultation.

In their report, the organisation states that they sought to gather this information in order to “rebut” the “unscientific information” regarding what pro-life organisations and politicians say about the benefits of the 3-day wait in reducing abortion numbers, and in order to “enhance public understanding”, and are using these findings to claim that the 3-day wait is not necessary.

However, according to statistics released by the HSE to Carol Nolan, TD, which includes all initial consultations and abortion figures, not just those who attended an IFPA clinic, on average 1,000 women do not return for their abortion after an initial consultation each year - statistics that the IFPA have completely ignored when making their claims. 

According to the latest HSE statistics, there were 10,441 abortions in Ireland in 2024. However, the information released to Deputy Nolan shows there were 12,641 initial consultations for abortion, meaning that 2,200 (17.4%) women proceed with their abortion in 2024 after that initial consultation.

HSE statistics released to Carol Nolan, TD, from previous years showed that in 2019, the first year of the abortion legislation, 7,536 women had attended an initial abortion consultation, with 6,666 women proceeding with an abortion, and 870 women (11.5%) not returning to continue with their abortion.

The following year, 1,480 women out of the 8,057 women (18.4%) who initially sought out abortion, did not return to continue with the abortion. This trend continued with figures from 2022 showing that 2,623 out of 10,779 women (24.3%) who had an initial abortion consultation, did not proceed with their abortion - that’s almost 1 in 4 women not returning for an abortion after the 3-day wait. 

Based on these figures, we can see that overall between the years 2019-2022, over 6,500 women did not follow through with their abortion after their initial consultation, which averages out at over 18% - a stark difference from the 2% claim made by the IFPA. Such a large number of women not returning to proceed with their abortions is suggestive that a large number of women are changing their mind within that time frame.

“The evidence is now clear. You cannot be against retaining the 3 Day reflection period without, however indirectly, being for more and more abortions,” said Carol Nolan, TD, in 2023 in response to the release of these statistics. 

“Data released to Carol Nolan TD indicates that the 3-day wait before abortion gives women time to think, and that on average a thousand women a year changed their mind in that time for reflection,” Megan Ní Scealláin of the Life Institute said back in 2023 in response to expectations that the Abortion Review would seek encourage the scrapping of the 3-day wait. 

She said that the data offered “incontrovertible evidence for the third year running that the 3-day wait gives women time to think,” adding that “it also shows that the 3-day waiting period may help women by giving valuable time to them to access support and help before making an irreversible decision.”

“It would be reprehensible for the government to scrap the 3-day waiting period and take that time to think away from women,” she continued. “They would be dramatically increasing the abortion rate, and breaking the promise they made in 2018 to voters on abortion.”

Whilst some in favour of abortion and of the scrapping of the 3-day waiting period tried to claim that the reasons for women not returning after their initial consultation to proceed with the abortion was not because they had changed their mind, but for other reasons such as a miscarriage, a double booking, obtaining an abortion elsewhere or being over the abortion limit, an analysis by statistician, Jim Stack, which was published on Gript, shows how this would have accounted for a small number of cases, and there would still be on average over 1,000 women per year changing their minds after the 3 day wait.

“The reflection period does its job, in short, and should remain in the legislation. It is actually very difficult to see how anyone, looking at the figures, would argue otherwise,” Stack said concluding a second analysis he did of estimated figures from 2023. 

Over 1,000 women changing their mind on abortion each year is a large number, given the gravity of what an abortion entails - the ending of an innocent life. It’s clear that the 3-day wait may help some women rethink such a decision. Statistics don’t lie and it is clear they suggest that a larger proportion of women seeking abortion do change their minds than the IFPA are trying to claim. 

Medical professions say there is “no medical basis” for scrapping the 3-day wait

In light of the then approaching abortion review of the Irish abortion legislation, back in 2022, over 100 doctors, nurses, midwives and other healthcare professionals wrote an open letter to then Minister for Health, Stephen Donnelly, urging him to retain the 3-day waiting period of reflection, pointing out that there “is no medical basis” for scrapping it, a direct contradiction to IFPA’s claim that there is no “scientific evidence” the 3-day wait is required.

“Despite the personal and campaigning opinions being expressed in favour of scrapping the 3-day waiting period, there is no medical basis for doing so,” the letter said. “There is evidence, however, from information released to Carol Nolan TD, that significant numbers of women may change their mind after the first visit to a GP or clinic, and decide during the 3 day period not to proceed with an abortion.”

“According to the HSE, there were 8,057 initial consultations for Termination of Pregnancy services in 2020. In that year, the Department also confirmed that 6,577 abortions were carried out. We concur with Deputy Nolan’s conclusion that more than 1,400 women appear to have changed their mind and did not go ahead with an abortion during the 3-day period,” the letter continued, adding that this means “that 18.4% – or almost one in 5 women – did not proceed with an abortion after the initial consultation. Similarly, in 2019, some 7,536 initial consultations were provided while 6,666 abortions took place, suggesting that some 870 women or 11.5% changed their mind during the 3 day waiting period.”

The healthcare experts said: “This data offers a hugely important insight that must not be ignored. There are very few Irish people, whether healthcare professionals or otherwise, who would welcome an increase in the number of abortions taking place. If women are finding support for an unexpected pregnancy during the 3-day wait, then that should be welcomed.”

“The 3-day wait helps women, it gives them time to think, and the figures strongly suggest it reduces the number of abortions,” Dr Ronan Cleary of Doctors for Life had also said at the time.

The 3-day wait is not about “not trusting” women

Upon reporting their claims last week, Dr Caitríona Henchion, medical director of IFPA spoke to the Journal further adding that the 3-day wait goes against medical advice and that it suggests to some people that “the State doesn’t trust them to effectively consider decisions about abortion.” The report further states that it “stigmatises” both healthcare professionals and women as “it implies that women would otherwise take an unconsidered decision and that doctors would ignore signs of uncertainty, or worse, rush someone into a termination.”

Back in 2021, Aontú Party Leader, Peadar Tóibín, TD debated on the necessity of retaining the 3-day wait on Newstalk with then Labour senator Annie Hoey, who also made a similar claim, saying that women have already thought about their decision and called the 3-day waiting period “demeaning”.

However, Peadar Tóibín referred to a woman he had spoken to saying that she had changed her mind because of the 3-day waiting period, pointing out that we cannot make a “blanket statement” that women have been able to think their decision though.

“In her situation she was in a housing crisis and she felt that she could not bring a child into the world in that housing situation that she was in. But in the intervening three days, she got to speak to people who could actually help her,” he said. “People helped her resolve her housing crisis, and she decided not to go ahead with that abortion and now she has a wonderful baby girl as a result.”

“It is impossible to know the situation that every single mother is in in this period of time. A blanket statement to say that everybody has thought their decision fully through before they've met their doctor is impossible. There will always be people who, within in those three days, their life options change for them, in which things can change and allow for them to be able to bring their child to term,” he concluded.

During the Abortion Review that took place in 2023, Barrister Marie O’Shea, who was appointed as Chair of the Review, despite having previously tweeted support for the repeal of the 8th Amendment, had said that research for the abortion review said that women “almost universally” said they did not believe they needed the 3-day waiting period, and was thus calling for the requirement to be scrapped. The IFPA also referenced comments from O’Shea made in 2024 to support the claims in their report.

However, Peadar Tóibín, questioned whether Barrister O’Shea had spoken to any woman that had changed her mind on abortion due to the 3-day wait, to which she had admitted she had not. Those that are favouring the scrapping of the 3-day wait like to use the claim that we should “trust women”, but how can anyone make such a claim about the 3-day waiting period when they refuse to hear the voices of the many women who did change their mind? Is this about trusting the woman who had the abortion, but not the one who chose not to?

Additionally, a study published earlier this year by David C. Reardon sought to identify the emotional responses to abortion, and found that grief and regret was more commonly reported following an abortion, particularly amongst women who reported that their abortion was “inconsistent” with their beliefs, “unwanted” or “coerced”, which together included 70% of the sample. The results of this study should call into question the amount of women who show some form of reluctance or uncertainty when it comes to their abortion decision, but proceed with it anyway, only to later experience grief and regret. Therefore, it is clear that the benefits of the existence of the 3-day wait is that it gives women that extra time to reflect and consider all options available to her, before launching into a decision she may otherwise regret.

What abortion campaigners need to recognise is that the 3-day wait is not about not trusting women, but about recognising the enormity of what they are about to undergo and that this cannot in any way shape or form a rushed decision. Making a decision to have an abortion is not the same as deciding what drink to order over the counter, or what topping to put on your sandwich. This is a matter of deciding whether they will kill their own child or let them live.

The IFPA have made claims to support a push for scrapping the 3-day wait based on their findings, and have used their findings to suggest that the existence of the 3-day wait means it risks “stigmatising” healthcare professionals, implying that they could “ignore signs of uncertainty” or “rush” a woman into an abortion. Yet the fact that within their own claims the IFPA have completely ignored official HSE Statistics, is suggestive of itself that they, as “healthcare” providers, are ignoring signs of uncertainty. The only thing that scrapping the 3-day wait will achieve is ensuring that women who are uncertain about their abortion will rush into a decision they may have otherwise rethought had they had the time to reflect on it. 

Research supports the fact that women do regret their abortion and HSE Statistics do suggest that the 3-day waiting period has played a role in reducing the number of abortions. Anyone in their right mind can see this is a good thing and not seek to scrap a measure that has saved thousands of lives in Ireland, and thousands of women from experiencing deep regret. Even then, what is so wrong about giving a woman some time to think before making such a drastic and life-ending decision?

With the horrifying rise in abortion figures since it became legal in Ireland, those who claim to favour women should focus more time and attention on providing resources and support so that no woman feels the need to have an abortion they do not want. Instead, it seems that they want to push claims based on misinformation and incomplete statistics, and use this to scrap a measure that will only ensure the number of babies being mercilessly killed in our country will go on the rise. This will not benefit women; only the pockets of those who provide this kind of “service”.